Peter Parsons, Forecasting Manager National Grid provides a detailed overview in respect to gas, covering: fuel prices; relative power economics; demand; demand forecasts; peak demand; supply forecasts from UKCS, interconnectors and LNG; and storage capacity for winter 2012/2013. In respect of the outlook for gas, forward winter fuel prices strongly favour coal burn over gas: weather corrected gas demand forecast to be lower than last winter; the forecast non storage supplies are slightly lower than last winter; LNG uncertainty given increased global demand and Japanese power mix; in 2012/13 storage deliverability should be higher than previous winter, and should increase further within winter when new facilities are commissioned. For electricity, the outlook suggest that average cold spell demand forecast 0.9 GW higher than last winter; notified and assumed generation availability has increased by approximately 1 GW from last winter; demand and full interconnector exports are expected to be met in 1 in 20 conditions.
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