The “Glide-Path” to Net Zero

The “Glide-Path” to Net Zero

Prof Neil Strachan, University College London

Too shallow/slow and we miss our target, too deep/fast and the transition collapses.

This BIEE Dialogue session will be an inclusive and interactive discussion on the immense challenge to meet deep decarbonisation pathways (to Net Zero by 2050) at the UK (CCC, 2016), and global levels (Rogelj et al., 2016). This session follows a spectacularly successful similar dialogue in the 2018 BIEE conference (which focused on: How to move beyond a techno-economic lens to a more holistic treatment of society and energy).

A consensus has emerged (Li et al., 2015) that deep decarbonisation strategies must not only encompass radical infrastructure and technology investment, but equally include a societally driven transformations in energy demand changes and technology diffusion. This twin interaction is further complicated by the ambition and consistency of policy and governance initiatives, as well as the need of energy firms to find new and profitable business models.

The viable pathway or window or “Glide-Path” to reach net zero emissions by 2050 is fragile. If we are too timid; the scale and speed of investment will be inadequate, virtuous learning cycles won’t be enabled, consumer behaviours will remain largely unchanged, and the scope for new pricing and information policies will be limited. However if we are too radical; we will strand capital intensive assets, deploy immature technology and services, get push-back and inertia from a non-engaged society and find the political price in enforcing the transition is too high. In communicating this dilemma, we often employ a visualisation of the glide-path of the space shuttle returning safely to planet Earth – too shallow and it bounces off the atmosphere, too steep and its burns up in it.

The dialogue session will be initially framed be an indicative pathway from whole systems modelling of the UK‘s pathway to net zero emissions by 2050. We will identify key assumptions and potential controversies in this particular pathway. Then we will ask leading UK experts from policy, regulatory, business and societal perspectives to challenge this pathway from a too shallow/slow and a too deep/fast viewpoint.

• How narrow is the feasible glide-path?
• What needs to happen by 2025?
• Will society accept changes in energy demands and dominant technologies?
• Can incumbents and new entrants make money in this new energy world?
• How much political capital needs to be spent (and will it be spent) to enable the transition?
• What is the timing of key interactions between the electricity, heat and transport sectors?
• Can the UK (should the UK) move at a faster pace than the rest of the G20 countries?
• What research do we need (what questions do we urgently need the answer to)?

We will then open the debate to a moderated general discussion, and will close by trying to capture key points of agreement and controversy.