Shell’s World Energy Mode

Mr Martin Haigh, Shell

 Every five years or so, Shell conducts a major scenario study to look at alternative futures for the world’s energy system.  Over the last three years, the Scenario Team at Shell has developed a completely new World Energy Model (WEM).  It is the most comprehensive model of the world’s supply and demand for energy that Shell has ever developed.  It is the first model, at a global level, to integrate economic evidence on aggregate demand for energy and the choices influencing the energy mix, together with bottom-up research on the availability, access and speed of development of different resources and technologies.  The purpose of this model is to assess how different drivers could affect a transition to a substantially different energy system over the long-term (five decades).  And its scope is wide: all energy sources, all sectors of the economy, all foreseeable energy technologies, and the whole world at a detailed country level.  The model has been integral to the development of Shell’s new energy scenarios to 2050, Scramble and Blueprints, and provided the detailed quantification underlying them.  This paper will provide an explanation of the key technical features incorporated within the WEM.