Scotland’s Net Zero by 2045: Modeling metabolic potentials and scenarios toward emissions reductions

Jean Boucher and Keith Matthews

The James Hutton Institute, UK

Societal metabolic analyses (SMA) offer a multi- and cross-scale method of understanding energetic and material flows at societal and other levels. SMA define and integrate views of: industrial sectors; workforce capacities; land use patterns; energy carriers and end uses; gross value added, and other primary material flows. Metabolic analyses can provide useful insights into options for social, economic, and energy policy instruments and to test their coherence as plans to move toward the ‘greening’ of economies, ‘green recoveries’, net zero, and a more ecologically just world. With the case of Scotland’s ‘net zero by 2045’, we use metabolic analyses to assess the challenges and tradeoffs in trying to maintain stable household and paid-work sectors while transitioning to electricity, other low carbon energy carriers and end uses, and while activating greener activities in land use and other industrial sectors. Through a number of different scenarios, we find Scotland to be extremely challenged by social and economic tradeoffs in its quest toward net zero by 2045. Scenarios include: status quo, net zero, progress to net zero, and degrowth. Other societal metabolic constraints and tradeoffs are discussed.