Regional energy futures as decision support in the transition to net zero emissions: North of Tyne case study

Regional energy futures as decision support in the transition to net zero emissions: North of Tyne case study

Claire Copeland, SPRU, University of Sussex
Prof Gordon MacKerron, SPRU, University of Sussex
Prof Tim Foxon, University of Sussex

Futures studies have a variety of purposes: to inform policy, assist investment or business strategy. They can even change perceptions of what the future may hold, and are sometimes described as having “transformative potential”.

This research uses a participatory qualitative scenario approach to explore the development of energy futures for a regional case study of the newly devolved administrative region North of Tyne. Energy futures were developed in two different settings; pre pandemic, and during the pandemic. This is for insights into how the pandemic has impacted futures thinking and drivers for change, as well as highlighting energy futures issues on sub-national spatial scales.

The North of Tyne energy future scenarios were developed based on discussions in two facilitated stakeholder workshops, held pre and during the pandemic. While the pandemic has resulted in shifts in thinking e.g. home working, appreciation of local environments and communities, there were some commonalities too such as the strong decarbonisation driver for change, the need for fairness and for high quality employment in the region. Some barriers in futures thinking had to be overcome during the workshops, notably the presumption that meeting a net zero target was a certainty. This presented difficulties in imagining futures that didn’t achieve this target, or did so but more slowly. The importance of being able to imagine living in all kinds of future worlds will be critical in a system undergoing such profound change, so that strategic foresight is developed to minimise risks of missing the net zero target.