Oil to gas shifting by regional energy diplomacy 

Asieh Yazdi

University of Dundee, UK

This study tries to analyse the political aspects of climate policy inside the Persian Gulf region from the domestic policies evolving to the regional gas policies. The study aims to capture the regional relations debate, and the insights of Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), both on the politics of infrastructure of the power grid and interconnected gas pipelines. The multilevel aspect of RSCT has been adapted to organise the analysis of the various dimensions of the states’ energy relationships and the interaction between them based on four different levels: domestic, bilateral, regional, and global. On this basis, the concept helps to explain the reasons leading countries to cooperate or conflict and describe their interests in regional balancing strategies and gas policies.

The research argues that the perception of regional states toward each other leads countries to either diversify their suppliers/resources or improve their relationships. The degree of interdependence is a conspicuous aspect that determines the notion of energy, either as a security issue or an economic one.

Empirically, the research examines policymaking processes in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iraq. Three cases were selected to study in comparison. Different states’ power and different perceptions of the international system allow for explaining different role players in foreign policy and energy politics:

1. Qatar, a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the first exporter of LNG worldwide with a huge common natural gas field – The North Dome Field/ South Pars field as the world’s largest single natural gas deposit, owned between Iran and Qatar.

2. Iraq with different politics from its neighbours, with strategic geopolitics of energy that connects it to regional interconnected gas pipelines and electrical grids

3. Saudi Arabia, the GCC-led state, and the most influential regional rival.

The case-study findings have been synthesized into three key variables in which neoclassical realist linkages are particularly significant in a causal approach: (1) the level of energy vulnerability of the countries and their domestic energy trends as the independent variable, (2) the foreign policy induced by the distribution of power and geopolitical relationships as the dependent variable, and (3) ideological or perceptual support for ethical implications of political decision-making as an intervening variable in energy access policies. These aspects create the opportunity to explain the different positions of energy resources in the foreign policies of different states.

The results provide the role of natural gas in regional gas diplomacy in practice in the three case studies: Iraq, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Among the barriers cited that the GCC states led by Saudi Arabia view energy diplomacy as a tool in trying to strengthen its influence and hegemony in the region. On the other side of the ledger are more political-based rationales in favour of ending the regional gas deficits, as well as small signs that differences may be more conducive to cooperation than the literature posits. Analysing energy partnerships over the region is instrumental in discovering the main trends and the key determinants of balancing gas strategy since the region is one of the important global energy partners. Securitisation here has two main objectives changing the threat’s perception of regional insecurity and vulnerability and evolving a regional balance of power.

The conclusion synthesises the results and contends the capabilities of the policymaking mechanism, the degree of state-sponsored nationalism, and ideology shaped whether regional strategy responds to external vulnerability by emulating, innovating, persistent in, or escalating existing strategies.

Some learning, according to systemic theory-testing research, can be exported. These lessons could apply in theory to other scenarios with similar selection criteria.