Oil Supply Analysis from the Goldman Sachs Top230 Study

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs International

The Top230 study models the largest 230 new oil and gas developments in the world to provide insight into the development of large new projects, the industry’s ability to deliver them, and the declining rates of the producing base. The study shows that of the largest developments, 13 are within Europe, 25 are within South America, 31 are in the Asia-Pacific, 50 are in North America, 55 are within Asia and the Middle East and 56 are within Africa. Production levels for those fields that are included in the Top230 study, as well as those outside of it, are shown from 2002 (projected to 2014). Key findings in terms of oil supply include: a decline in maturing new projects based on Final Investment Decisions between 2007/09; decline rates in non-OPEC have increased; and the industry’s delivery track record has been very poor. If these trends continue, non-OPEC faces potentially disastrous production declines.