Laurie Duncan
University of Birmingham, UK
The importance of evidence in the development of net zero policies is widely acknowledged. It is however overly simplistic to claim that ‘good’ evidence leads to ‘good’ policy. The extent to which evidence meaningfully influences decisions depends on many different factors, including the source of the evidence, its suitability in a policy context, and how it filters into policymaking processes. These factors are especially important to consider in a local context. UK energy policy has been highly centralised for decades, and many other local authority competencies vital for delivering net zero, such as transport and waste, have been hollowed out as a result of a decade of austerity. Evidence that might be beneficial in national government will not necessarily be of use to local and regional authorities developing decarbonisation strategies.
While studies have been conducted assessing the use of evidence in national energy policy, there has been no equivalent investigation in a local context. Moreover, studies of local energy have tended to make UK-wide comparisons with questionnaire and survey-based methods. A more interpretive, qualitative approach is required to address this lack of detail.
This study investigates the role of evidence in net zero policymaking processes in the West Midlands. The focus of the case study is the West Midlands Combined Authority’s first Five Year Plan towards achieving net zero emissions by 2041. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with council officers, consultants and councillors involved in the development and implementation of the plan, in order to gain a deep understand of the process, alongside documentary analysis of the policy documents.
The net zero framing brings to the fore a challenge of evidence-based local policy. While agreeing on the overarching constraint of balancing carbon emissions and sinks, localities have diverse and often contradictory sets of priorities within the shared framework. This leads to different normative conclusions regarding the roles of evidence and expertise compared to the literature on national level policy. Uncertainty also emerges as a key theme – whether it is due to lack of available data, modelling that oversimplifies complex systems and hides underlying assumptions, or simply because there are inherent unknowns when planning many years into the future. Taking these issues into account will ensure that evidence can effectively inform local energy policies, making them more robust, and more likely to achieve their intended outcomes.
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