Meeting the UK government’s net zero emissions goal for 2050 will only be possible by complete decarbonisation of the building stock (both existing and new). There is uncertainty over the extent to which heating might practically be decarbonised in the future and what the optimal technologies may be. This paper provides some clarity about the pathways forward, focusing on the next 5-10 years.
Key findings
- Current progress on heat decarbonisation is not commensurate with the rate of change required for net zero by 2050.
- A combination of energy efficiency, heat pumps and district heating is the least-cost technology pathway for heat decarbonisation in the next 10 years.
- The scale and speed of the transition means that decarbonisation progress for areas currently on the gas grid will be required before more about hydrogen is known.
- The electricity system impacts of heat electrification can be reduced by smart operation of heating systems in well-insulated buildings.
- Current policy ambition falls far short of delivering residential heat decarbonisation in line with the UK’s net zero emissions target.
Read the full paper here
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