LCP Delta: ‘Gargantuan’ effort needed for UK to meet Clean Power and to keep going beyond 2030
- LCP Delta launches new analysis on how the UK can reach and maintain Clean Power beyond 2030.
- Clean Power 2030 is technically achievable, but unprecedented levels of build and investment are needed to reach such a challenging target.
- Challenge will continue post 2030 as demand on electricity grid set to increase by 50% to 2035 and double by 2050 from today’s level.
- Pre-2030 investment of £120bn set to grow to £235bn between 2030-2050.
New analysis by LCP Delta reveals that the UK’s energy transition challenge will continue beyond 2030 as the country seeks to reach full net zero by 2050. Focus right now is on meeting Clean Power 2030, but with the increase in demand expected to double between 2030-35, investment levels far exceeding those needed in the run up to 2030 will be needed to meet demand and address a capacity gap of up to 20GW.
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Commenting on the challenges that the UK will face in keeping Clean Power a reality after 2030, Sam Hollister, Head of Energy Economics, Policy, and Investment at LCP Delta said:
“Delivering a Clean Power energy system by 2030 is technically achievable but it will need government, industry, regulators and investors to move heaven and earth to meet it. What comes after though and achieving net zero by 2050 is arguably an even greater challenge. Except for offshore wind, the UK will need to build higher volumes of every energy technology between 2030-2050 than what it needs to build pre-2030. From a Capex spend perspective, this means that our investments need to increase from £120bn pre-2030 to £235bn between 2030-2050. Clean Power 2030 is the base camp of a mountain that the UK must climb by 2050.
“To reach Clean Power 2030 will need a gargantuan effort from all involved. The goal is technically feasible with the focus on low-cost renewable deployment – something the UK is well placed to achieve. Meanwhile, to maintain a Clean Power system beyond 2030, the UK will need to develop a system that can cope with the increasing demand as we ramp up decarbonisation of transport and heating. This growth in demand will necessitate technologies such as carbon capture and storage and using clean fuels such as hydrogen in power generation. In our scenario, we are expecting to see demand between 2030 to 2035 increase by 100TWh, this is more than double the increase expected from now to 2030. In 2035, we will need 10GW of gas carbon capture storage and 8GW of hydrogen, however, both these are reliant on accompanying infrastructure. Taking into account likely nuclear decommissioning at the end of the decade, we could be looking at up to 20GW of additional firm capacity that will need to be found to meet peak demand in 2035.”
Keeping on track for Clean Power 2030
To reach Clean Power 2030, LCP Delta’s analysis identifies a number of barriers that industry, regulators and policymakers need to focus on. These include:
- Unprecedented scale up of all key low carbon technologies to deliver all technologies to their maximum feasible level by 2030. The rate of building new energy technologies in 2023 at 3GW was significantly below the 11.3GW build level required to reach 2030. A significant scale of deployment is required.
- Significant increase in Contracts for Difference (CfD) budgets to deliver renewable capacity needed. 20GW of offshore wind needs to be procured across the next two CfD auctions which would require a 65% increase in budget on an equivalent basis compared to AR6. Yearly build of solar will need to increase to levels not seen since 2015, with CfD and rooftop solar significantly increased.
- Clean Power 2030 is not achievable with the current development timelines for upgrading the transmission network.
- Connection and planning delays are reducing investor confidence and hinders the most valuable and ready to go projects from connecting quickly. Unlocking the delays is critical.
- Government needs to speed up decisions on key policies and market reforms to reduce uncertainty for investors. This includes a fast roll out of long duration cap and floor scheme and clear decisions on the REMA programme.
On reaching Clean Power by 2030, Hollister added:
“There are only five years to achieve the levels of low carbon build that is required to reach Clean Power. We know there are always potential for delays in major infrastructure build and demand may be higher than currently, so we can’t just pick one scenario for Clean Power but aim to build all technologies to their maximum level.
“Renewables alone can’t get us there. We need other technologies such as long duration energy storage and low carbon thermal solutions such as gas carbon capture storage and hydrogen power generation to support a renewables-based energy system. Developing the transmission network to get energy from the north to the south, and scaling up capacity, particularly on local networks, is also one the biggest roadblock that needs to be overcome.”
About LCP Delta
LCP Delta™ is a trading name of Delta Energy & Environment Limited and Lane Clark & Peacock LLP. LCP Delta™ combines the expertise of LCP Energy and Delta-EE to provide a single partner across the whole energy value chain. We are a team of passionate people using data, primary research, insights, analysis and models embracing advanced technology and innovation to accelerate the energy transition globally. Find out more here.
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